I receive many emails from the world over asking if I know what Olympus is planning. If only! I'm not party to what goes on in the Development Section at Headquarters in Japan. In many ways I'm rather glad as I bet this last 18 months has been quite a ride for those poor guys! Sometimes it's better to soldier on in total ignorance!

The rumour mills have been working overtime for months. It's quite amusing and occassionally enlightening to read the posts on the Olympus interest sites. Many of these posts are born out of pure frustration at the seeming lack of progress by Olympus to bring on their E-1 when the major competition seems to be able to bring out new models with higher specifications at the drop of a hat!

A BRIEF LOOK BACK

Olympus heralded the E-1 as the only DSLR designed from the ground up as a 'true' digital camera and placed great significance on the fact that the E-1 was not a 35mm derivation and was therefore free of subsequent 35mm 'baggage'. This baggage refers not only to legacy lenses but the whole concept and design of other manufacturers cameras arising from another and bygone era. Olympus promised small and compact bodies with significantly reduced lenses that were especially designed for the digital sensor. They told us then and still insist that in digital imaging the lens is mightier than the sensor. I believe that most of what they told us is true but the E-1 was not a resounding success in the market. The main criticisms were cost, 5MP, poor AF speed, too much noise at increased ISO and a limited range of (expensive) lenses. But probably the biggest issue was the new 4/3rds concept was not only the smallest of all DSLR sensors but demanded a 'leap of faith' into the 4/3rds philosophy - with no way back.

We all know that in the digital world things move rapidly and while the argument relating to high sensor cost applied in 2003, within 2 years there were full frame 35mm size sensors from Canon. I'm not sure if this rapid progress caught Olympus by surprise or whether their engineers disregarded it in their search for the 'ideal' sensor size for digital imaging, but for sure the megapixel war certainly punished Olympus and its 5MP E-1. We'll never know if Olympus were a bit naive or were sold the idea that new technology for cramming more pixels onto the small 4/3rds chip without the high noise levels would become available sooner rather than later. Whatever the reason it's fair to say this misjudgement has cost Olympus in terms of lost users of the E-system at professional level and left them playing 'catch-up'.

To redress this issue Olympus has given us three more (consumer grade) DSLR choices - E-300, 500 and 330 though suffice to say the E-500 was in response to the poor reception of the rather ugly E-300. That said the E-500 has put the company back on the DSLR map in a big way as it is a mighty good camera.

THE INFAMOUS "PAINTED INTO A CORNER" SYNDROME

I can't recall which reviewer attached this analogy to his critique of the 4/3rds concept and system on its release in 2003. There were other more abrasive descriptions such as 'an evolutionary dead end' that has subsequently been withdrawn. But, if we take off our affiliations to Olympus for a moment, these analagous descriptions are understandable, especially if your DSLR springs directly from the 35mm era, which covers just about everything BUT Olympus.

We all know Olympus marches to the beat of a different drum; it always has done. As a long term Olympus fan, user, collector and writer, I have witnessed several of these unusual directions and I can see why a casual observer or commentator might draw certain conclusions. I'm not saying they are wrong and I'm right - the world is too complex for such a simplistic approach. What I am saying is that Olympus has been a world force in the photographic sector for many decades and has the corporate will to stay that way for many years to come. It's not the largest or the most influential company, but it is both tenacious and capable. All forward looking companies go through cycles; they all get it right and they all get it wrong. If it weren't for these cycles progress just wouldn't happen.

The comparison between 4/3rds and half-frame has been made time and time again; I've done it myself! It's nothing to do with size, it's to do with concept and restriction. 135 format half-frame proved immensely popular for 20 years between 1960 and 1980. Olympus sold around 10 million half-frame cameras and they were not alone in exploiting the market created by Maitani's remarkable insight. It was inevitable half-frame would not survive; it was restricted by its physical size and the medium used - film, and soon reached its own level of maximum performance that for a time anyway could compete with full-frame 35mm. Of course Mr Maitani was determined that images from his half-frames should reach exhibition standard - in those days around 7.5" x 10" - and they did (many pushed them to 16" x 20"). But it was not about format or resolution or sharpness. It was about size, convenience and economy. Maitani spotted a gap in the market and plugged it beautifully with half-frame but this was only a stepping stone to his more grandiose plans.

So is the 4/3rds concept a case of history repeating itself? Quite simply - no. In the 1980's as half-frame was in its death throws film too was reaching its own limits. Film had ruled for almost a century but the winds of change were blowing. The digital era is the beginning of a new age that will not be entirely restricted as it was in the last century by materials development like cellulose and chemicals. This new age will be practically limitless in its scope and capability. It is simply a coincidence that Olympus pursued half-frame in the 60's and is once again pursuing a restricted format. But there are no real similarities; only the temptation to draw them.

Half-frame and 4/3rds? - Apples and oranges.

E-1 REPLACEMENT TO BE ANNOUNCED AT PHOTOKINA 2006?

It seems probable Olympus desingers have skipped an iteration (E-1n or E-2) and will be announcing their second Pro level E-System body - supposedly called the E-3 at Photokina. We suspect it might be called the E-3 because Olympus have registered this trade mark. If previous form is anything to go by we should have the new camera 'leaked' to the press in August 2006, so it's not too long to wait.

It seems plain that Olympus engineers could not source a satisfactory CCD for the highly rumoured E-1 replacement announcement last year. It is believed the camera was prototyped but the performance of the (10MP?) CCD sensor was below par. It might be pure coincidence that the competitions' announcement of new models in Autumn 2005 might have put an additional layer of pressure on the development team at Olympus. Whatever, I for one am looking forward to seeing the long awaited E-1 replacement (only 3 years and we call it 'long awaited!').

My main worry is the price which, based on a similar splash-proof body to the E-1, is expected to be in the region of £1500. I'm hoping Olympus will learn something from the E-1's rough early sales ride and those comments from some reviewers and Professional users that seemed to be based around the "MP to price" ratio. As it happens - isn't it always the same? - the limited E-1 has proved Olympus right in what they told us in their sales patter; it is a fabulous DSLR, beautifully concieved and delivered with the best 'out of camera' jpg's in the business, and has many ardent fans worldwide.

SO WHAT DO WE KNOW?

We know the camera division is back in the black after 2 years of negative returns. We can only guess at the past size of the R&D budgets they must be huge. Such a budget and such sustained losses are probably due to the E-1. It is understandable that the new CEO is wary of repeating history - wouldn't you be if the share-holders were breathing down your neck? But the evidence for 4/3rd's committment is there

We know (according to pretty reliable information) Olympus are now unlikely to announce an E-3 at Photokina. There's to be some sort of pre-production model available for display. The latest indication is that production proper is expected in first quarter 2007. No E-3 announcement comes as a disappointment for many who consider the camera overdue. It's plain that the sensor is available but its performance is not yet up to expectations.

We know Kodak are not making the new cameras CCD. Their last full-frame transfer CCD for Olympus appears in the 8MP E-500. The E-330 is fitted with a 7.5MP CMOS type sensor from Panasonic - Olympus' new partner. And Leica too have signed up to the 4/3rds consortium via their links with Panasonic and are producing the E-330 based L1. Will this extra 'muscle' lever in an outside sensor manufacturer (Foveon and Fuji and Cypress have been rumoured to be in the frame) or will the giant Panasonic deliver the goods? Personally I can't see this consortium going outside its own membership for this fundamental component.

We know that Olympus have 'dumped' all stocks of E-1's and major body accessories such as the HLD2 grip. This is surely a sign that whatever is to follow the E-1 will not be using the same battery grip.

We know that the Olympus lens 'Road Map' promised to deliver a ZD14-35mm fast zoom last year that has not been forthcoming. Yet other lenses mapped out have appeared so is it just possible that the E-1 successor will come 'bundled' with a brand new high grade lens? It's a nice thought but it may be more to do with reducing its size. Recent shortages of Olympus glass have been worrying but the E-400 and its 2 'Blue Band' compact lenses might be the explanation.

We know from many genuine postings to various forums that Olympus representatives are assuring folks that there will be a new model announced in late 2006. We also know from the Company's strategic statements it intends to increase its share of the DSLR market at the expense of the compacts. And the latter part has already happened with the demise of the top-gun C Series digicams. As an interested observer of the company for many years I'm certain that it wants to put the bad results of 04/05 trading year behind it and build on the resounding success of the E-500 and the return to profit made in this financial year. Furthermore I'm totally convinced Olympus will answer its critics with the announcement of a blindingly good pro-level camera in September - though I suspect it will not be available until late November. (Looks as though this was too optimistic!)

We know the E-330 showed that innovation is alive and well and residing at Olympus! There are company statements about the possibility to incorporate "Live View" into other Olympus designed DSLR's. Live View appears in the Leica/Panasonic L1 and the L1 also has on-board the SSWF dust shaker showing the degree of integration between the consortium members. Leica is developing Image Stabilisation, an area where Olympus has been lagging. The E-330 has the same large screen as the E-500 with the added advantage of movement - though quite why the L1 doesn't appear to have this is a mystery. Olympus have delivered most of the promised new glass - regardless of cost - and this alone must mean there's a Pro-grade body on the way. The expanded 4/3rds consortium seems to be buzzing with promise and the hint that TAMRON may be about to sign is more good news. This new dynamic bodes well for further 4/3rds development. And remember the megapixel race is virtually over at around the 10MP mark - it's no longer a case of how many pixels but of individual pixel fidelity that counts. Look also at some of the recent developments in the digicams where on-board software is reducing noise at higher ISO levels by sophisticated combination techniques.

We know the recent E-400 sports a 10MP sensor with some noise problems at 800 and above, hence the restrictions. So there's obviously a bit more work to be done to any further, even small increases in photosites, to provide an 11MP sensor for E-3. And of course, we don't know which sensor the company might go with. Honestly, I believe the E-3 sensor is almost here.

Finally we know that the 4/3rds concept is primarily aimed to reduce the size of DSLR's. We know Olympus has always maintained "the lens is mightier than the sensor" and by giving us some remarkable glass it is proving this to be the case.

All of this is happening right now. 'Painted into a corner? I think NOT!

MY GUESS AT THE SPECIFICATIONS

I've been asked to indulge in a little speculation about the new E-3. Actually there are plenty of clues out there already.

OK, for what it's worth here's my guess - or is it a wish list? Maybe a bit of both:

1. E-1 style body with built in power grip; powered by 2 BLM1's; slightly smaller than E-1 and more rounded; no on-board flash; C/F & MD only; 3" fixed review screen, command LCD retained; slightly altered & enhanced button positions; new viewfinder display (blue); no Live-View.

2. 11MP (10.4 effective) sensor CMOS style (I've got to alter my view on this following the E-400 release. I believe the sensor will be CCD, by Panasonic and of 12MP effective 11.2MP useable); full frame transfer; internal buffer = 512MB; frame rate = 5.5 fps; additional processing engine for new patented 4/3rds ISO 'cooling' algorithm.

3. Lens based IS compatible (for L series lenses) and IS ready (for Zuiko Digital IS series with optional and retro-fitting IS ring).

Please remember this is pure speculation and for a bit of fun only. It will be interesting to see just how far out I am!

What is important in all of this is the committment from Olympus to the professional user. I genuinely believe the company will not turn its back on the professional and advanced amateur market. It would make a mockery of the high grade lens development already undertaken that has delivered some remarkable and world-beating glass. To me anyway, it is unthinkable. And I believe the company think that too.